## 1\. Macroeconomic Context: Resource Thresholds, Climate Perturbations, and the Structural Reconfiguration of Global Feed Supply Chains The global aquaculture industry is currently navigating a period of acute collision between the exponential expansion of production capacity and the approaching limits of natural ecological carrying capacity. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, aquaculture—the world's fastest-growing animal protein production sector—has exceeded 150 million metric tons in global aquatic animal production by 2025, bearing the core mission of bridging the immense projected gap in human protein demand. However, this ambitious "Blue Transformation" is highly reliant upon an underlying global feed supply chain system that is both highly complex and exceptionally fragile. In recent years, the core vulnerabilities of the aquafeed market have manifested prominently in the extreme price volatility and absolute supply shortages of its critical raw materials: fishmeal and fish oil (FMFO). This volatility is not merely a short-term market disequilibrium; rather, it is a systemic outcome triggered by the resonance of climate change, ecological thresholds, and macroeconomic cycles. According to recent reports by the agricultural finance publication _Nongcai Baodian_, Haid Group achieved a feed sales volume of 32.08 million metric tons (including internal use) in 2025, representing an approximate year-on-year growth of 21%, with overseas sales reaching 3.46 million metric tons. Concurrently, New Hope Liuhe recorded feed sales of 29.74 million metric tons, generating feed business revenue of 76.019 billion RMB. Dabeinong reported feed business revenue of 18.485 billion RMB, yielding profits exceeding 400 million RMB. The number of feed enterprise groups with an annual production capacity exceeding one million metric tons has increased to 37, collectively accounting for 57.0% of total national production. Conversely, extreme market conditions—such as fishmeal prices surging to a historical peak of 19,100 RMB per metric ton—are compelling the industry to accelerate the implementation of raw material substitution and low-protein diet technologies. Analyzing the underlying data chain reveals that the global fishmeal supply chain is disproportionately dependent on the capture fisheries of small pelagic species, notably the Peruvian anchoveta. The reproduction and geographic distribution of these wild fish populations are highly susceptible to perturbations from extreme climatic phenomena, such as El Niño and La Niña. Ocean warming, alterations in oceanic circulation, and unpredictable shifts in migratory pathways have precipitated a precipitous decline in catch predictability, thereby transmitting substantial uncertainty into global commodity pricing. Empirical data analysis further corroborates this trend. A longitudinal econometric study examining the Norwegian salmon market indicates that since 2000, salmon price volatility has exhibited a sustained and statistically significant upward trajectory. Notably, the magnitude of this volatility substantially exceeds that of most traditional agricultural commodities and even surpasses certain high-risk financial assets. Although modeling analyses suggest that price fluctuations in bulk feed commodities—including fishmeal, soybeans, rapeseed, and wheat—cannot entirely account for all spillover effects observed in terminal aquaculture prices (with robust consumer demand and diminished supply elasticity also serving as critical drivers), the physical reality of global wild fisheries approaching their maximum sustainable yield thresholds remains undeniable. This reality, coupled with the fact that the growth rate of aquafeed demand is significantly outpacing that of raw material supply, dictates that the "structural shortage" in the raw materials market will persist at least until 2026, and likely further into the future. Confronted with surging raw material costs and the impending threat of resource depletion, aquafeed formulation design and industrial strategy must transition from a traditional, two-dimensional linear paradigm (optimizing strictly for cost versus feed conversion ratio) toward a multidimensional, complex network framework. This advanced paradigm must encapsulate the first principles of nutrition, life-cycle ecological footprints, and systemic food quality and safety. This necessitates not only fundamental structural substitutions in protein and lipid sources across the industry but also a profound technological paradigm shift concerning bioenergetic metabolism mechanisms, cross-trophic toxicological transfer, and rigorous carbon emission accounting.
